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WDEL Blog: Allan Loudell

Making Sense of Election 2012

In a way, it's rather like "Groundhog Day". Almost nothing changed.

Millions and millions and millions of dollars thrown at targeted advertising. 24/7 polling.

In the end, we still have two Americas. Americans remain deeply divided by race, gender, and degree & type of religious affiliation. We even see this divide here in tiny Delaware.

Yet, despite the white male defections from President Obama (although many resisted four years ago), ultimately it was blue-collar whites - ethnic Catholics and white, middle-of-the-road Protestants - in Rust Belt states who re-elected this President.

Considering the economic headwinds buffeting this President - and the tons of ads thrown against him from conservative super PACs - one must ask if the Republican Presidential candidate could NOT win this election, which one?

Some interesting factoids:

This is the first time a major party Presidential ticket lost its home states (Romney: Michigan & Massachusetts... Ryan: Wisconsin) since McGovern/Shriver in 1972.

This 2012 Presidential election represents the fifth time over the last six elections that the Democratic Presidential nominee has captured the popular vote over the G.O.P. nominee, and the fourth time in six tries that the Republican candidate has lost the Electoral Vote and the Presidency.

Could a different running mate had made a difference? I interviewed one Obama voter here in Delaware who swears he would've voted for Governor Romney, if only he had picked Chris Christie as his running mate. This voter wants Christie in 2016.

Massachusetts Presidential candidates (Romney, Kerry, Dukakis) may as well hang it up. For whatever reason, they have trouble relating to Middle America. When they make the extra effort, it comes off as unnatural and forced.

Irony: Conservative columnist George Will - a strong proponent of keeping the Electoral College for choosing our Presidents - has argued in the past that an Electoral College victory often accentuates the winner's popular vote win. Think about it. Now we have the battle over whether the voters have delivered the President a "mandate".

(If President Obama were still to LOSE the overall national popular vote, that would turn this argument on its head!)

Within both parties, look for monumental battles. On the Democratic side, liberals/progressives fear the re-elected President will "sell out", delivering concessions to Republicans to head off the fiscal cliff and other potential economic calamities. (Conservatives who fear Mr. Obama will now veer recklessly to the Left may take small comfort over reports ex President Clinton has been advising on the transition to a successful second term.)

Within the G.O.P., the pitched battle has already begun over whether Republicans keep losing because they nominate "too moderate" candidates -- John McCain, and now Mitt Romney. But, it's difficult to see how a more conservative candidate would have overcome the Republicans' distinct demographic problem. It shows no sign of going away; it is deepening.

Meanwhile, one expects continued gridlock in Washington. Again, "Groundhog Day".

Another "Groundhog Day": Storms coming up the East Coast.

Mother Nature has bookended this election. First, Hurricane Sandy. Now, a Nor'easter with snow! By the way, at least in New Jersey, an overwhelming majority credited the President for his handling of Sandy.


From all the articles I've reviewed, I recommend this analysis from NATIONAL JOURNAL's Ronald Brownstein...



http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-wins-by-marrying-the-new-democratic-coalition-with-the-old-20121107



Plus, from POLITICO, 12 takeaways...



http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83462.html?hp=f1



Posted at 8:42am on November 7, 2012 by Allan Loudell

<- Back to all Allan Loudell posts



Comments on this post:

JimH
Wed, Nov 7, 2012 10:50am
The article is interesting. As the Dems veer more to the Left, they should be in trouble. Yet they are not. That is a bad sign for the country.

The Republicans are in real trouble. If Delaware is any indication, the party itself is becoming just a footnote. If the party can only garner 30% of the vote statewide in Delaware, what does that mean nationwide? The party is dead in our state. Changing the state chairman certainly did not help. The party needs to determine what it stands for.

The nation is changing from one focused on those who try and attempt to succeed, and is becoming instead a nation centered on drug addicts and other parasites. The future is not bright. True, the Republicans did well in the South and Midwest, but the nation is changing. Why did we not carry Virginia?

I make my comment as I have observed that many Obama (Leftist) supporters tend to be lovers of drugs, both legal and otherwise. They also tend to be lovers of government handouts. That tends to also be the major push of Dems in Delaware and nationwide. Our country is in big trouble.

I am more depressed today than I was even on the day my Mother died. At least I knew she was at the end. I never expected our country was really on the road to death. It really hit me this morning my beloved country had died.

EarlGrey
Wed, Nov 7, 2012 1:07pm
JimH: Yes, we are in serious trouble and yet how many citizens even realize it? I had big hopes that after four years of misery people would see that we needed to try something new...instead, we get to see what would have happened had Jimmy Carter been re-elected.

It would seem Romney was correct about the 47% even though he was demonized for making the statement.

Mike from Delaware
Wed, Nov 7, 2012 1:39pm
EarlGrey and Jim H: Well said. The Hippies of the 60's finally are truly in control of our nation and have managed to be better evangelists for their cause than THE CHURCH has.

The younger generations are more in tuned to the hippies, so they see no problem with legalized drugs, sex outside of marriage, Gay Marriage, abortion as birth control, partial birth abortion, etc, no rules, do and say whatever you want, other than publically proclaiming Jesus Christ as Lord. If you're Muslim, that's OK for you to publically speak about your faith though. Yes, it is a sad day indeed in America. We are indeed living in the 21st century version of Ancient Rome.

Once again looking at the maps, the metro areas are blue, and the rural areas are red. Even in Delaware blue is taking over, as prior only NCC was blue, now this time Kent switched from red to blue. The influx of out of state folks from the Northeast moving here and the growth of a larger minority community in Dover is changing that former red county to blue.

Saw an article where Puerto Rico voted and the majority want PR to become a state, most said they'd get more benefits that way. They'd also get to vote for Prez. Seems to me the nation should get to vote to admit a 51st state, but given how this election went, no doubt PR would be voted in helping to make the DEMS unbeatable. Look for a path to citizenship for illegals during this next four years, which would add those DEM leaning voters too.

Definitely not a good day for America. Apparently the Stock Market isn't thrilled either.

teatime
Wed, Nov 7, 2012 1:54pm

Mr. Loudell is right: the nation remains divided. But NOT necessarily because of race, religion, or gender.

The great divide is based on mindless partisanship. People are childlishy and foolishly judging all issues based on party affiliation.

If a politician has an extramarital affair, embezzles money or commits a crime, the first question we ask is "which political party does the politician belong to?" If the poltician is in our party, we automatically dismiss the claims as false or try to rationalize the behavior. If the politician is a member of the OTHER party, we are automatically outraged and become a vocal critic.

This became clear in the runup to yesterday's election.

If anything is dragging our nation into the abyss, it's not any particular candidate who was elected or not elected yesterday--it's the mindless partisanship that hurts us all.

Shawn
Wed, Nov 7, 2012 2:12pm
OH MY GOD! YOU PEOPLE ARE UNBELIEVABLE!!!

My wife is a lifelong Democrat, a steadfast Liberal. She has actually considered unregistering as a Democrat because she feels the party ISN'T LIBERAL ENOUGH! And yet she's not into drugs. She doesn't accept or expect handouts. But she does believe that government serves a purpose. That there's nothing wrong with helping people who are down on their luck. That we can't do everything on our own. And that the government has no right or reason to tell you who you can marry. A lot of times, it has nothing to do with "expecting a handout." It has everything to do with accepting other people for who they are, even if you don't agree with them.

This kind of stereotyping and generalizing is why Republicans keep losing. You seem to believe your way is the only right way. This country is made up of people of all walks of life, faiths, and beliefs, not just yours. We have a Republic (not a Democracy, remember), so that ALL those different ideas can be represented... NOT JUST YOURS.

You all were eager to tell the Democrats to leave the country if they don't like the way things are going. Well, now it's your turn. If you're honestly and truly more depressed today than when your mother died (seriously???), then please, be all means, FIND SOMEWHERE ELSE TO LIVE.

Considering where we were during the 2010 election, it surprises me to say this, but... well said, teatime!

arthur
Wed, Nov 7, 2012 2:16pm
How did we fare in Delaware?

Convicted criminal elected - check
Wife of convicted alcoholic criminal elected - check
Completely incompetent office-holder re-elected - check


EarlGrey
Wed, Nov 7, 2012 3:35pm
Shawn: Exactly what is your definition of "handouts"?

It's not just the poor or down-on-their-luck who receive "handouts"...it's "green" businesses, government-run car companies, teachers of "higher education",union & government jobs that all offer Cadillac benefits programs. They too are the 47%.

I read a quote from Rush earlier today where he asked, "How can any Republican defeat Santa Claus?"...They can't.

As long as everyone continues to vote for the person who gives the best gifts under there tree, we will continue to lose our country because we are ignoring fiscal responsibilty for the immediate gratification for our wants.



mrpizza
Wed, Nov 7, 2012 6:40pm
Teatime: I hate to rub your nose in it, but I'm partisan and proud of it!

mrpizza
Wed, Nov 7, 2012 6:41pm
Shawn: If things don't turn around in the next four years, I may be seeking political asylum in CUBA!

EarlGrey
Wed, Nov 7, 2012 9:33pm
"A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence:

From bondage to spiritual faith;

From spiritual faith to great courage;

From courage to liberty;

From liberty to abundance;

From abundance to selfishness;

From selfishness to complacency;

From complacency to apathy;

From apathy to dependence;

From dependence back into bondage."


~Alexander Tytler & Elmer T. Peterson


kavips
Thu, Nov 8, 2012 9:49am
Actually, as a result of this election there is hope. Democrats now know that most of the people in the electorate want them to achieve results and if they have to, they need to simply roll over top, flatten Republicans who get in the way. They may whine, they may gnash their teeth, they may drink till they pass out. But the American people, said, "get it done, with or without them."

Republicans are now completely inconsequential...

They are the caricature one doesn't see any more in the funny papers (I'm dating myself with that term, lol) of that bum on the street corner, holding the sign that says, "end of the world is coming."

They will be around, holding such signs, but as of yesterday, they don't matter. Republicans flat out, don't matter. So we don't need compromise; we need results. And as Shawn points out, the whining and moaning on this thread, is exactly what one would expect to hear when one's ED medicine box has run out and is completely empty...

mrpizza
Thu, Nov 8, 2012 10:48pm
Kavips: You are WRONG. The Republicans in Congress are going to come out SWINGING against your president in 2013!

Mike from Delaware
Thu, Nov 8, 2012 11:02pm
Mrpizza: I hope you're wrong. I don't expect the GOP to become DEMS, but I do expect them to NOT do what they did for the past four years, NOTHING. It is past time for the kiddie games to end and for these supposedly well-educated, overpaid pencil-pushers to get something done to get the economy working and get people back to work and fix the deficit before we go over the fiscal cliff. Enough is enough. The GOP lost the election; the people spoke. I may not agree with the people, but the GOP needs to make an effort to work with the DEMS and yes, compromise. IF they don't, do you think the public won't remember come 2014 and vote out of the HOUSE those GOP members, costing them the control of the HOUSE.

Look... idiots like Limbaugh say, I hope Obama fails. I may NOT agree with Obama's plans, but I sure as heck don't want him to fail, because that means the nation fails. There are many folks out there hurting. You and I have decent jobs, but many others don't and won't until this economy gets fixed. I find it rather selfish and arrogant for those multi-millionaire blowhards on right-wing talk radio hoping the misery of regular folks continues so that Obama is proven wrong and they who are part of the wealthiest 2% don't pay a dime more in taxes. They should be ashamed of themselves. I'd rather Obama be successful even if it means fixing the economy in a different manner than I'd have suggested. So you're entitled to your point-of-view, and quite often I agree with you, but on this, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

mrpizza
Sun, Nov 11, 2012 3:33am
MFD: I don't think the talk hosts want people to continue hurting. They just simply understand the reality that liberal tax and spend policies fueled by class envy doesn't solve anything. You can't expect the policies that got us into trouble turn around and get us out. Before you can have a different result, you have to take a different action.

Mike from Delaware
Sun, Nov 11, 2012 8:07pm
Mrpizza: Let's see, the taxes on the wealthy (the so called job creators) were dropped during the Bush Jr years. The wealthiest 2% are paying the least amount of taxes since WWII. Yet during the years 2000-2012 all those years the wealthy made money like they had a printing press in the basement while the rest of us lost income.

Funny thing, plenty of jobs were created during 2000-2012, OVERSEA's and slave wage jobs for illegal aliens in this country. The middle class sure didn't benefit during these past 12 years. Trickle down didn't work during the Reagan years and it didn't work during the Bush Jr. years, nor for the 1st term of the Obama years.

So I totally agree, its time to do something different so we can get a different result, and that is tax the wealthiest 2% the same tax rate they were paying during the Clinton years (I'm cutting them a break, because what we really ought to do is tax them at the rate they were taxed during WWII, but I wouldn't want to be the cause of wealthy folks jumping from 30 story windows). ONLY give corporate tax breaks to companies that actually have created new jobs IN AMERICA, for LEGAL AMERICANS. No jobs, no tax breaks. You and I do not get a mortgage deduction or a charity deduction UNTIL we spend the money and buy a house or give to our church or other charity. We do not get the tax break BEFORE, it should be the same with business. Do it my way and my guess is, you'll see far more jobs being created in America for legal Americans, because then it will cost businesses to not do that. You've got to affect THEIR bottom line to get them to do the right thing and affect it enough so it isn't just the cost of doing business, it has to hurt their bottom line.

So I say let's go back to what we were doing during the years of Bill Clinton as Prez and Newt Gingrich as Speaker. This was the only time in modern history where we had a surplus. Both Clinton and Gingrich are alive and well, so both Obama and Bonner(sp) should enlist those two men's help and have a summit with the four of them together, no media, no one else, no cell phones, etc, so the four can speak freely and honestly. Obama and Bonner should pick Clinton and Gingrich's brains and then Obama and Bonner should together present something to the nation so we all can know what they recommended and with both of them presenting the info, there will be buy in from both sides of the isle.

Then when the Congress screws around and doesn't do it publish a list showing all in both houses of Congress, who did vote for THE PLAN vs who didn't so we'll all know who to blame in 2014 and vote those idiots out. This is called accountability. This is something we all have in our jobs, it's way past time to restore some accountability to these highly payed glorified pencil pushers who don't seem to be held accountable for anything and THAT's wrong. Time to put the pressure on these clowns to do their jobs in a way that actually benefits the nation, not just their wallets.



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