WDEL Blog: Allan Loudell

Even G.O.P. concessions on immigration-reform may not be sufficient to woo Hispanic vote

Even though chances of Congressional passage of an immigration reform package are vastly higher than Congressional passage of gun-control measures (other than possibly universal background checks), it's still not at all clear that the majority of House Republicans will buy into the bipartisan Senate framework for immigration reform.

The bugaboo remains the notion that any pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants remains ultimately an amnesty AND may psychologically encourage others to come to the U.S. illegally (or stay in the U.S. illegally). No matter that liberals / progressives fear a link to a "test" on border security might impede the path to citizenship.

Indeed, I still think there's a 50/50 chance that Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) ceases being a darling of the Tea Party, and is merely regarded as an opportunistic sell-out.

It's also possible that we see deja vu, a replay of the fiscal cliff deal, where an immigration reform package clears the U.S. House with the overwhelming majority of the minority House Democrats, and peeling off House Republicans from the Northeast and Midwest. In other words, it would have passed over the heads of most House Republicans. Another Boehner/Cantor split.

But in the end, even if immigration reform clears the two chambers of Congress, would Republicans necessarily win over some Hispanic voters?

Unclear. Perhaps a few percentage points. But, given the blanket coverage of the issue in the U.S. media - particularly Spanish-language media - surely most Hispanics would know some Republicans had to be dragged in kicking and screaming.

And, as the following article in NATIONAL JOURNAL suggests... the divide between the G.O.P. and the majority of U.S. Hispanics isn't necessarily limited to immigration reform...



http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/why-immigration-reform-won-t-cure-the-gop-s-struggles-with-hispanics-20130130

Posted at 7:52am on January 30, 2013 by Allan Loudell

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Comments on this post:

teatime
Wed, Jan 30, 2013 8:23am
Allowing amnesty for illegal aliens will do nothing to woo Latino voters to the Republican Party, but this type of sell-out will infuriate the GOP base, and further hasten the collapse of the GOP into irrelevancy.

Grow some stones, stand up for what you believe in, stop amnesty for illegals, and take a stand for your principles for once, for God's sake.

Mike from Delaware
Wed, Jan 30, 2013 8:31am
This is a political issue. Basic right and wrong says they came here illegally, violating our laws. So based on those laws, they should all be deported. But unless we ask Germany to send us all those old cattle-cars the Nazis used to herd off the Jews to death-camps it won't be an easy task to deport that many people. Remember the Nazis killed over 6 million Jews, plus millions of other people, Catholics, Lutherans, Gypsies, and Homosexuals, etc., they didn't like. But essentially that's what we're talking about, when we say let's deport 11-million Hispanics back to Mexico. This is NOT doable, and maybe there's a better way to deal with this.

OK, we all realize that our government has sat on its hands for more than 30 years, doing nothing to stop this problem. So rather than this being a small problem, it's become a problem of epic proportions, because our government is so ineffective.

The GOP has painted itself as anti-immigrant. I said this is a political issue, because the DEMS see those folks as new DEM voters and statistics bear that out to be true. The GOP knowing this, doesn't want them to ever be able to vote.

Even the Hispanics see it as a political issue. The more of them who are here able to vote, the more power they have as a group. So this truly is a political issue.

As the Hispanic community does use and need those "evil government programs" the GOP wants to eliminate while giving tax-breaks to the wealthiest American does turn off Hispanic voters. They see the DEMS as working for their best interests and the GOP working for the robber-barrons.

So it's no surprise that the article Allan shared, said that the immigration issue alone won't sway many Hispanics to the GOP camp. Same problem with the Black community. They as a group too, depend on those government programs. So even if a black GOP candidate ran for Prez, they'd NOT vote for he/she for that reason.

The GOP is no longer the party for the little guy. It's the party of the wealthy. Talk about class-warfare.

EarlGrey
Wed, Jan 30, 2013 9:56am
IMHO the GOP is finished... Not all Republicans, but Grande Ol' Partiers are done (again my opinion).

I believe the best solution to the immigration problem is to (1). Help ease LEGAL immigration (through less bureaucracy and shorter wait-times)and (2) Close the back door of our country to any further ILLEGAL trespassers.

To fix immigration, we first need to enlarge the front-door of America and ease legal immigration. Encourage immigrants who want to thrive in our country (especially educated individuals and those with trade/job skills). The next step is to put E-verify into place now (not phased in over 5 years as our president has suggested) and go after the evil businesses that willingly hire people who are not legally permitted to work in our country. If no one will hire non-citizens...then they will go back to their former country (this is what Romney meant by "self-deportation"). And last, the "back door" must be locked and protected to prevent people from illegally breaking into our country. I believe that most of the people who break our laws and cross the border simply want jobs and want to support their families, BUT there are also too many people (from many different countries) coming into our country who are violent criminals...many now reside in our prisons or harm our citizens.

Republicans need to focus on the border as if it were the back-door to a person's home... We lock our doors and only invite in those who have knocked and requested permission to enter... If we say 'yes', then they are our guests; if we say no then they are intruders/trespassers, if they come in anyway.

Mike from Delaware
Wed, Jan 30, 2013 10:10am
EarlGrey: Well said.

JimH
Wed, Jan 30, 2013 11:29am
I agree. EarlGrey has it the way it should be.

Unfortunately, this will do to the G.O.P. what slavery did to the Whigs. It is a lose-lose situation.

teatime
Wed, Jan 30, 2013 11:42am

There are millions of immigrants, from all corners of the globe, who followed the rules and immigrated to the United States legally.

Giving amnesty to the 11-million who came into the country illegally is a slap in the face to all the immigrants who followed the rules in coming to the country legally.



kavips
Wed, Jan 30, 2013 4:23pm
Not a surprise that Republicans cannot even do immigration right. When you have a nice dad but a mean mom, you still don't want to go home.....

When you have members of the Republican party in Arizona openly calling for using Mexicans as target practice for their high capacity clips and assault rifles, one can understand why they don't warm up too much to Rubio.

These Arizonians are nuts, to be sure, but until the Republican Party completely disassociates itself with people who are really mentally, emotionally, and physically backward, it will continue to implode.

Republicans are just totally weird. The real world has passed them by. If you are a Republican and want representation, join the Democratic Party and work from the inside to make it more in line with your values.

Do you really want to be associated with the kook of the century... Wayne LaPierre? More people trust Lindsey Lohan...

kavips
Wed, Jan 30, 2013 4:27pm
Rats. I didn't distinguish where I said that Republicans are just totally weird, that I was speaking not of the individual members who are scratching their heads like Earl Gray above, but with the leadership who is listening only to its certifiably crazy donors. That has to be what is going on...

I can see no other way a political party consisting of normal, well-liked human beings, would shoot itself in the mouth like this.....

Mike from Delaware
Wed, Jan 30, 2013 6:58pm
Kavips: I can't speak for others here, but I couldn't be a DEM any more than I could be a GOP. DEMS only represent one part of my views, but totally ignore and actually hate the other part of my views and beliefs, you know being a pointy headed Christian and all that implies to liberals. So no way for the DEMS as far as I'm concerned. So I'm an Independent.

mrpizza
Thu, Jan 31, 2013 1:29am
The bottom line here is that the Democrats have succeeded in buying the Hispanic vote using public money, the same as they have other minorities. The GOP will never win them over unless they offer a bigger feeding trough. Everything Jefferson warned about regarding the voting of goodies from the treasury has finally come true.

kavips
Thu, Jan 31, 2013 2:31am
From my experience with Hispanics, I can say they don't want a bigger feeding trough. They are happy with life as it is. If you can't grasp that,.. you have to understand where they come from. Their parents don't have cars. If they are well to do at all, they own a burro; otherwise they walk.

To be part of this country, probably means they are alive because of it. Things are so bad, they'd be dead if they'd stayed home. It is pure juvenile silliness to make any point over them being here illegally. Big deal! They are here illegally because we, the United States of America, can't do without them.... Bottom line, we don't want them to go back.

Now that we are accepting them finally, even making them go to the back-of-the-line is unfair. They've done their time, so to speak. They should enter the line at which point they arrived. If they've been here 20 years and the line is 19 years long, and they have been outstanding citizens that entire time, raising their families, being productive, putting children through schools, fair is fair and they need to be rewarded for that.... If they've been here 10 years, they should be processed along with those others who have also been waiting ten years.

To say, oh, you should have stayed where you were, saved up money first, and come here legally, is like telling someone who can't get a loan for their home... they should work three jobs their entire lives, saving-up the money first, before buying their home with cash...

If that example sound preposterous, that is exactly how things went before the New Deal wiped-out all the 19th Century capitalistic regulation and replaced them with the wonderful financial system into which we were all born....

Bottom line, most Hispanics are better human beings than Wayne LaPierre could ever be. We let him in this country. Politics aside, we need more better human beings in this country irregardless of political persuasion....

Let's get right to where this conversation is going. The tone is exactly that of the slavers during the time of the Whigs.... They wouldn't free slaves because the opposition party would win. Who cares about right or wrong, they said.. If slaves are free, we are out of office.. Bottom line, legalize all of them, then let both parties scramble and try to win their affection.

To deny them basic human rights to preserve one antiquated out-of-date, bizarre party with stone-age values, is just plain wrong.

kavips
Thu, Jan 31, 2013 3:22am
"40 percent of our illegal immigrants or undocumented people that are in this country, they didn’t cross the border?’’ Marco Rubio said. “They came legally, their visa expired and they stayed..."

Seriously. If any of us had been Soviet citizens and visited America during the Cold War, wouldn't we have stayed as well? These guys are NOT criminals.





Allan Loudell
Thu, Jan 31, 2013 5:43am
And lest we forget, the system is inherently biased.

If you're a Cuban on a boat, and land in Florida, you get expedited legal permanent residency, than U.S. citizenship.

Other Cubans from the western part of the island end up in the Mexican state of Yucatan, then make their way to the U.S./Mexican border.

Allan Loudell








Mike from Delaware
Thu, Jan 31, 2013 8:33am
Mrpizza: The DEMS are not buying minority votes with the safety-net programs provided them. This is the one area where I'm with the DEMS. They are helping folks with those programs who are down on their luck, due to being out of a job. Granted there are the "welfare queens" who have no intention of working, but they are NOT the majority of the folks being helped with the safety-net programs. The government has made it more difficult for those bums to cheat the system.

Most of us are only a paycheck or two away from needing that same safety net. I'm grateful that I've never needed it, but do know many decent hard-working folks who have. FDR and his New Deal were on the correct path. Many decent hard-working folks need those programs.

Allan and Kavips: Good points, well said.

kavips
Thu, Jan 31, 2013 5:32pm
A point that was recently made about the safety net. We need a strong safety net; it is what allows us to do risk....

A very valid point, for if risk meant certain death, there would be none. Without risk, economies hunker down and never ever grow.

mrpizza
Fri, Feb 1, 2013 3:14am
MFD: I'm not disputing what you're saying about safety nets. However, social security, medicare, etc., were put here for American citizens, not freeloaders from just anywhere and everywhere. The safety net is OUR property.

Mike from Delaware
Fri, Feb 1, 2013 8:21am
Mrpizza: Can't argue with that statement.

The issue becomes, from what I've read, that many illegals ARE paying Social Security taxes in their paychecks. So IF they are paying into the system, then shouldn't they also get the benefits? For those who are NOT PAYING into the system, then the question becomes how do we weed out those non-American freeloaders who are illegally getting Social Security and Medicare, and have not paid a dime into the system?

The sad thing about this is our government, both parties, since the days of Reagan have consistently dropped the ball in terms of fixing this problem, and now it's gigantic, with no easy fix.

There are illegals who've lived here for over 30 years, who raised families, have grandchildren, and now great-grandchildren all who've become Americans in heart and spirit, if not legally (any born here are of course legal Americans, so it's only the great-grandparents in such an equation who are illegal and any kids they brought with them). How do you uproot such a family structure after all those years? For such a family, that other than coming here illegally 30 years ago, have been model Americans? I think there's where that Dream Act should be applied.

First things first though; we need the border sealed-up, with it set-up for easy exit back into Mexico. Sort of a oneway door. We'll look the other way if you're going back into Mexico, no questions asked, but no one gets in unless they're supposed to be here.

Then we go after all businesses hiring illegals and fine those businesses in a serious way. The fine has to be high enough that it's no longer a benefit to hire illegals. It's no longer the "cost of doing business". Then with no jobs available for illegals. most of the younger illegals would go back to Mexico on their own. The remaining illegals who have a history of working, and not sitting around collecting benefits, should get a path to legal-worker status, and eventual path to citizenship.

Realize that once we've done that where those businesses will have to hire legal Americans, the price of food will go up as legal Americans are to be paid - by law - a far higher wage than the illegals have been getting, so you and I will pay literally out of our wallets for the government's lack of doing anything all these many years.

mrpizza
Sat, Feb 2, 2013 11:15am
Yep. I've always believed that immigration reform was the one mistake Reagan made in his entire presidency. Unfortunately, what they want to do now is the same as what was done then even though the evidence shows it produced the opposite of the intended result.

Mike from Delaware
Sat, Feb 2, 2013 1:16pm
Mrpizza: I don't know if it was the only mistake the Gipper made in his Presidency, but I get your point. It may have been the most significant mistake that had real negative affects on our nation.

You're correct, the "knuckleheads" in Congress AND the White House want to make the same mistake again. Fool me once, shame one you. Fool me twice, shame on me.


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